How Industry 4.0 Can Create Jobs

By 2030, the ongoing digitalization and the immigration of refugees will change the labor market in Germany. In what form, an international research consortium on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (BMAS) examined in the forecast of the project "Labor Market 2030". In addition to forecasts for 44 economic sectors and 147 professional groups, the forecast also gives recommendations relevant to companies and research in order to master the challenges of demographic and technological change.

Essential: Driving integration and expanding qualifications

The current forecast uses two scenarios to estimate developments in the labor market. The basic assumption in one of the two scenarios is "accelerated digitization", which assumes that German companies will not only use and implement digital technology, but also strive for technological leadership - especially in the area of ​​networked production. According to the model calculations, this scenario not only leads to higher productivity, but also to more employment. To do this, however, previously missing qualification and infrastructure requirements must be created. "Unlike a number of existing studies, we see significant market potential for the German economy in the accelerated development and implementation of Industry 4.0.This has positive effects on growth and employment,”the authors of the study write on their website.

The other scenario focuses on refugee immigration. The authors' conclusion: The increased job offer due to total immigration could bear fruit between 2020 and 2030 - if the integration task is pursued comprehensively, quickly and continuously.

Scenario building with qualitative technical expertise

Qualitative technical expertise, consisting of analyzes and studies on digitization, flowed into the “Labor Market 2030” scenarios. The experts at Fraunhofer IAO deal with the effects of digitization on work in "Industry 4.0" as well as in administration and public service. The focus here is on assessments of competence requirements and qualification developments as factors of work that can be designed in different ways. Building on this, one of the recommendations of the project is to align personnel policy in the longer term and to institutionalize adult education as a separate pillar of the education system.

The forecasts and the underlying technical expertise are freely available as open access files. (kj)

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